实验 / 研究笔记

大模型能否一次性设计出有效的加密货币因子策略?

我让四个大模型分别独立设计加密货币永续合约截面策略。它们收到相同的提示词,每个模型只能回答一次,不追问、不调参。随后,我把回答实现为冻结、可审计的 Event 策略,在同一历史区间和相同交易成本下回测。

这不是比较谁能写出最像样的策略说明,而是检验一次性生成的研究规格,能否经受时点化数据、交易成本、资金费、缺失观测、成交时序和路径依赖风险规则的考验。

公平的一次性实验合同

评估区间(UTC,右端不含;另计终止清算)
→
初始权益
100,000 USDT
每单位成交名义金额的摩擦成本
5 bp 吃单手续费 + 2 bp 滑点
  • 相同的因果合约池和时点化数据。
  • 只读取已完成观测;计划指令不早于下一分钟成交。
  • 每个模型只回答一次,不澄清、不追问、不搜索参数。
  • 读取结果前机械解决歧义,并作为模型缺陷保留。
  • 每个 run 都由源代码、数据集和原始回答哈希共同确定不可变身份。

四个模型分别提出了什么

ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra

缓冲相对动量

每日计算跳过最近一日的动量,并用波动率标准化。多空选择使用进入与保留排名缓冲区,减少无意义换仓;Event 实现处理陈旧价格和暴露漂移。

Grok 4.7 XHigh

残差动量与资金费 carry

每日组合市场残差动量和资金费 carry,采用多空缓冲选择与分钟级暴露约束器。其提出的暴露与公共合同冲突,因此按公共合同机械覆盖。

Kimi K3 Max

资金费、动量与反转

在日内组合近期资金费 carry、中期动量和短期反转。组合回撤突破阈值后缩减风险。

Claude Fable 5.1 Max

滚动资金费 carry 反转

每小时使用滚动资金费信号、逆波动权重和排名持有带,并加入冷却期、漂移控制及合约相对市场快速异动时的退出规则。

冻结规则下的最终结果

保留冻结排名:先看总收益是否为正,再比较成本后夏普、Calmar、更低回撤和更低换手。因此,Kimi 虽然亏损更多,仍排在 Claude 前面。Grok 的夏普为正不代表它盈利。

冻结规则下的最终结果·llm-cs-202509-202608-v1
排名发起人提供的模型名称总收益夏普最大回撤累计换手成交次数
1ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra+42.32%1.04-24.67%196.1×24,058
2Grok 4.7 XHigh-3.91%0.16-43.88%270.0×32,200
3Kimi K3 Max-47.06%-1.55-53.15%535.5×53,600
4Claude Fable 5.1 Max-38.69%-1.76-49.03%538.5×115,847

显示精度与交接比较报告一致:百分比及夏普保留两位小数,换手保留一位;JSON 保留全部原始精度。

收益路径同样重要

每日期末权益(USDT),所有策略共用坐标轴直接使用提供的每日期末权益,包含终止清算点。通过线型和文字区分模型,不仅依赖颜色。 ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra: 142318.68875386892 USDT; Grok 4.7 XHigh: 96088.09532322202 USDT; Kimi K3 Max: 52944.25200357327 USDT; Claude Fable 5.1 Max: 61307.97882318065 USDT50420.71100000181366.122025-09-012026-09-01
  • ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra
  • Grok 4.7 XHigh
  • Kimi K3 Max
  • Claude Fable 5.1 Max
直接使用提供的每日期末权益,包含终止清算点。通过线型和文字区分模型,不仅依赖颜色。
查看每日权益原始数值
每日期末权益(USDT),所有策略共用坐标轴
日期(UTC)ChatGPT 6 Astra UltraGrok 4.7 XHighKimi K3 MaxClaude Fable 5.1 Max
2025-09-0199304.41343293886100907.4343465361299209.0906232149498904.07702127169
2025-09-0299199.4301717764898898.6957249066298648.1217249265297930.99586999131
2025-09-03100699.4296701650998419.5326288432102647.3952555272398727.96495722294
2025-09-04101405.0879230650599541.63751955635102147.3603715930498370.16814848065
2025-09-05101224.89030399268100469.89570417494105287.1262346904798415.7890819142
2025-09-06102708.5686797945299489.1332235838106146.9992117123297931.56073192251
2025-09-07100644.3285976744892559.88282160525103461.1945356614396777.40422254088
2025-09-0897999.861605740283056.45899659286103467.901932124394686.12465557683
2025-09-0999415.4417697209483478.3843272908102184.3639922370293904.44333730404
2025-09-1092164.3929194243176823.8073703099489551.1814374903893014.66960587975
2025-09-1191529.1734064031977477.0941147675888707.665638701893566.76600474086
2025-09-1292232.9543454012665639.123990871581645.8127649396692875.8528791554
2025-09-1392342.9671464343768089.1141407789880805.2324240545992499.97770101004
2025-09-1493674.4031571085269342.3479488212582345.9344040872793553.17231509426
2025-09-1593611.4916931193971082.6538617545483066.9476527710495057.12942186752
2025-09-1693306.4967991613271693.4966300549783143.015298554594474.645242002
2025-09-1796150.3198568082372306.1497764928682831.5850278076494208.65479243452
2025-09-1895424.4415365314571611.1782112779380868.500734422594224.14741934203
2025-09-1995003.172266336373335.4701710709881643.9514812140195967.84179074419
2025-09-2094130.3543484049475185.0721999233281849.5388963925596359.43085427611
2025-09-2194490.3519169816775005.001082840480763.4341142530896340.90821166358
2025-09-2296388.3160923559676219.310011599182743.2347088994797388.54001472153
2025-09-2396212.1552694533578144.3505088200982618.62489091598795.38617808507
2025-09-2496321.3360918612378732.5038926425383970.646287181598577.46276167971
2025-09-2594794.7871719395980480.4888509609783499.9631212024599561.7621583325
2025-09-2695838.8991850694482946.028659697785664.99259927163100808.59082316475
2025-09-2796841.1270040323781758.2198275035984814.66879090815101967.94172709183
2025-09-2899586.752720218381279.9524162784483524.53184852607101484.5497627634
2025-09-2999019.3094353979484352.4274414346684135.55445390762101402.34667472744
2025-09-3099368.6576680771785692.537169770284635.44631434194101696.60234589528
2025-10-01100595.6991693252385654.2945775987388326.617743909899732.87185264517
2025-10-02100535.1122393721684166.260779886587700.5646245758198634.35706422284
2025-10-03101126.5151204141684262.321643422286031.0140920120899507.58732047534
2025-10-04100852.020547756585008.4277577706186957.200003512599948.4915523204
2025-10-0599852.1112944000885793.4117376691987328.708421547100287.37319721638
2025-10-06100532.0368760567885275.2903665027188313.0390365419798639.75337124494
2025-10-07101016.6376064779285200.5943251399788000.6136673266999048.85734172574
2025-10-0899193.9577966118587115.8705118840686837.1311876900499543.78137425182
2025-10-09100720.2912706773588826.8857146367486622.7332721015799493.69978216279
2025-10-10108332.8043499353589044.3484642417886828.446951849697610.32408799352
2025-10-11108333.0450305947289014.8311161171686365.0425574800296702.4754736358
2025-10-12107839.19125606389988.410469594685213.315801524695693.47385900782
2025-10-13109115.6028846571189670.5182934612785916.463378614495291.65924262666
2025-10-14109212.3071378005390386.142867199387219.727077427395396.493631188
2025-10-15108167.441364953690823.4458132981487702.9456653482695849.33190194513
2025-10-16110698.6209321688793200.2479123585584896.7122109041896437.68965215684
2025-10-17108447.9565424585393139.3907941316684096.8331642267696110.0752771327
2025-10-18110400.4834276406992700.9056051438888211.02174686196028.47340200818
2025-10-19109581.3174732513192144.087971223888921.6391053857495428.26273619093
2025-10-20107609.9585370711691343.4411491365988763.7056323098294946.29853488838
2025-10-21106248.5500788192790532.6503363757486689.5244439346196350.90861818012
2025-10-22105741.2122851264391828.7424663484687335.7159783176396556.23017614236
2025-10-23106413.1877960106590658.040541964686970.2432896068395428.02387166815
2025-10-24110088.0756903782691928.8427724461587163.4054710574196253.01638015524
2025-10-25109422.4113328500591493.8125722861486384.9777898386796902.18678551819
2025-10-26109842.8681841175492659.6927331755385210.5649917617397965.95020801079
2025-10-27110452.2086155546492410.6691444270583976.2485636507998195.51657062738
2025-10-28111754.5659409450990103.3471086873984608.099185157397618.18010473184
2025-10-29109724.1566118027190403.5288383379886689.1750613560196594.50848964443
2025-10-30113099.9998293893687536.3154939974887221.6090713816797368.66626191331
2025-10-31115085.7593092028489014.2329080154986628.3214207378298202.17969646769
2025-11-01113191.9741918439192097.172384680685964.5472167118799710.19614249868
2025-11-02113758.1154137132192113.120169402386799.0417539300399686.76148896248
2025-11-03116280.9233178346387890.8400073979383725.1836964267497983.02619042945
2025-11-04118353.6115039092786192.4001916779182949.4565791277698927.8027392087
2025-11-05114075.0081876796988308.2362694415485268.2996882916699316.03092684766
2025-11-06112552.5073865469694754.4578460184479228.97880454981101639.20215099257
2025-11-07114125.7662621391594228.5705556932479620.29513477607105306.48104913683
2025-11-08110165.1030808801493377.2913063587577616.10063287747106827.90606286691
2025-11-09108582.8667909994891450.8431691460777807.717500208104629.82961686616
2025-11-10103097.5718136865387863.9672595333777072.65781382403102297.59426728186
2025-11-11102449.2119228612787380.8950445812577567.385558582100830.16775516285
2025-11-12102276.7113789762285960.5371641875576769.13889015913100278.22568281235
2025-11-13104172.6061952473287756.9889656870577383.4802226498199371.66075144809
2025-11-14104758.0524030547791567.1304637631778447.46900233554100282.27822856448
2025-11-15104153.8245186561192415.7940490440477266.84298178255100635.41836360276
2025-11-16106283.2114209600894602.8647078005378547.8467449383898655.20917185703
2025-11-17106185.8685142692493743.0769777994980238.383397711398669.24437083871
2025-11-18103397.0394156038493528.1672110895680797.6413979491298181.58214131011
2025-11-19104539.5217410864392939.0287566970780968.5536054840899209.44938616978
2025-11-20103958.1074231337793731.6210185189482338.1703880333101729.5028855183
2025-11-21102629.7100264389990272.7842996367180504.6053581236100549.9035672701
2025-11-22101053.0209228313387100.4319493068379193.6610530096299599.65384875426
2025-11-23102806.9252299456190423.1548083980781065.4207578478598275.47759083282
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2025-11-25101759.916840262689949.93721877681198.6661784512795647.66736042967
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2025-11-29101731.8784383834990497.6294741765782991.3956000329693642.56803862966
2025-11-30103557.6216035564790515.9172008811783078.3925932272894301.4913367863
2025-12-01103152.1717121707391133.52211252482149.3682287588995465.56864961596
2025-12-02101249.5989805586693963.3107458565582756.6142491002894717.34360424832
2025-12-0398648.2582979504293154.4843795366982218.4250131858993466.99362334385
2025-12-0499022.69589950593174.0003474186482413.2051769597392757.26649730685
2025-12-05101402.6534231225893617.3801056775481922.504720689793884.8395772672
2025-12-06101638.9396241717594666.6650087167582719.0506949383492863.47478566534
2025-12-07100416.7278367517793046.3374407934380849.6921877822890618.07653393173
2025-12-08100578.5848098681995364.7421641525982559.1733035637291009.47891372892
2025-12-09103820.5221186654796685.5571676776583696.1945917550391293.42979917553
2025-12-10108265.7907098732597827.3855154875885210.4178169412391380.23354593318
2025-12-11108510.0684067300997846.4785283829485613.7687845080891609.82895447637
2025-12-12109993.4061620615799386.1143660805887489.604224293992569.50319472387
2025-12-13113454.51921634258103013.2306111794887384.4463989774893894.64726007545
2025-12-14118069.35013753016104251.6329533624188006.458860885993301.56994682818
2025-12-15121805.64216487204104037.9867959503287125.6013660754492371.26670367688
2025-12-16114822.4094239778294516.9393791530284230.2573655165589444.76227768864
2025-12-17117643.7156686343799502.726859346686248.3396890579990061.70949854658
2025-12-18118758.97733363882101443.519121198386165.7636435426890669.4443290247
2025-12-19115507.1151609290199867.353517085186964.1044068448589588.07749920407
2025-12-20118234.26445629245102983.1581217076987066.1829415725488646.8578276737
2025-12-21118401.82237859476102638.9588997204686800.5115419081187642.18457196116
2025-12-22120444.92065563308103153.0184312655588047.7302802033888502.82465755605
2025-12-23119947.74859720322104552.8339496482289485.8412519889289388.79334673099
2025-12-24118575.80125096272103334.8259312854588408.8657226862489412.9433651916
2025-12-25118601.60443038325103869.9915442841688750.5043701613389798.77909467657
2025-12-26113046.83113985916101614.4888752090987429.6357640605188146.74145584516
2025-12-27112487.98646189616100234.8053078910387325.2527568638686436.86260120642
2025-12-28114027.35084311687100018.3547109866686499.3692689942884983.65021593096
2025-12-29116267.00165166307105116.8313508252389374.313597279187105.72628266829
2025-12-30112872.49941135045106269.6963004100390481.4009416675886758.19324074761
2025-12-31111385.2861431742297527.2549699436385585.3071609279185309.9724382978
2026-01-01108072.495431078597802.7088564037884043.39830332184777.28437312478
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2026-01-30108956.16217743592115449.1441666301593347.6315097633388081.02493352469
2026-01-31109368.8298746871123025.4638403649994008.5650215860189458.82071947573
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2026-02-05110536.87646588882118895.9044023901891753.9103704580887394.25565440799
2026-02-06107619.52879798276116567.623024795690552.8066339022385595.66437341302
2026-02-07105735.46336987228116059.7634681807591469.579290469685532.73212119333
2026-02-08104866.21197902806116159.3141246402292437.1707637337183979.91856578524
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2026-08-30144309.3273505639596620.0580276344853505.901736521661140.237733044516
2026-08-31142428.096747114296163.852006782452966.4474143523661354.678080375146
2026-09-01142318.6887538689296088.0953232220252944.2520035732761307.97882318065

月度一致性

月度一致性
月份ChatGPT 6 Astra UltraGrok 4.7 XHighKimi K3 MaxClaude Fable 5.1 Max
2025-09-0.63%-14.31%-15.36%+1.70%
2025-10+15.82%+3.88%+2.35%-3.44%
2025-11-10.02%+1.69%-4.10%-3.97%
2025-12+7.56%+7.75%+3.02%-9.53%
2026-01-1.81%+26.14%+9.84%+4.86%
2026-02+8.76%+0.31%+0.44%-9.22%
2026-03+5.80%-1.62%-9.84%+3.92%
2026-04+12.67%+14.17%-8.88%-15.60%
2026-05+0.27%-2.29%-12.77%-15.19%
2026-06+14.96%-11.88%-20.53%+2.22%
2026-07-4.41%-18.44%-5.25%-3.02%
2026-08-8.84%-1.20%+3.95%+2.45%
正收益完整月份7/126/125/125/12

终止清算期间——不计入完整月份一致性 (2026-09): ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra: -0.08%Grok 4.7 XHigh: -0.08%Kimi K3 Max: -0.04%Claude Fable 5.1 Max: -0.08%

我从实验中学到了什么

因子故事合理并不够

多数方案在成本后亏损。除了因子方向,时钟自洽、换手控制、缺失数据处理和可实现的风险规则同样重要。

资金费是一级收益来源

所有策略都获得了正资金费现金流。获胜结果并非纯粹来自价格动量;Grok 同样获得大量资金费,但不利的价格收益和交易成本抵消了优势。

换手率真正拉开了差距

重复换仓通过手续费与滑点消耗资金。应将下面的实际现金流与累计换手一起阅读,而不是把交易频率当作报告的附属指标。

规格表达能力也是模型能力的一部分

冲突时钟、缺失回退规则和不可同时满足的约束,都按最窄的确定性解释处理。任何模型都没有获得第二次机会。

实际现金流(USDT),不是重新构造的收益归因
模型收到的资金费支付的手续费支付的滑点
ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra46,716.7012,273.724,909.49
Grok 4.7 XHigh100,113.6814,532.975,813.19
Kimi K3 Max64,994.5220,980.828,392.33
Claude Fable 5.1 Max81,641.7121,065.728,426.29

审计与局限

本实验只包含发起人选择的模型标签、一个提示词、一个历史区间及 Binance USD-M 永续合约公开历史数据。没有测试实盘成交、清算阶梯、订单簿排队或重复提示下的策略搜索。并非每个历史时点都有完整的交易所状态快照;从观测行情、历史边界和滚动流动性推断合约资格仍有这一局限。模型与推理强度名称由实验发起人提供,不代表当前产品可用性。BFBT 是独立项目,与 Binance 没有官方关联。这里只是历史回测证据,不构成投资建议。

基准
llm-cs-202509-202608-v1
冻结源代码提交
2b1ca8f6826866fcf70e1cc39fefae4c8a668c7f
DatasetSnapshot SHA-256
a49846e623dee5ef16cebe28a48a12e384c07582237a782eeef311208ab75e96
Run 身份
  • ChatGPT 6 Astra Ultra
    evt-a01175782a0fa6997144d0da
  • Grok 4.7 XHigh
    evt-c7bdf2892da257893f46be6c
  • Kimi K3 Max
    evt-498d8f170a3ee9272dbbb66c
  • Claude Fable 5.1 Max
    evt-ed4f9aeb18febee2690b12d4

查看证据

先看统一比较,再查看完整 Event 报告中的权益路径、成交、排名、指令和风险事件。报告仅在点击后打开。

打开统一比较报告 →

冻结的原始实验协议